SurveyUSA (9/21-22, likely voters, 8/9-11 in parens):
Bruce Lunsford (D): 46 (40)
Mitch McConnell (R-inc): 49 (52)
(MoE: ±3.9%)
Well, that’s an amazingly nice spread if true, but two other recent polls show this race more in the 13 to 17-point range (although one of them is a Mitchie internal). I’d have to see this trend confirmed in another poll to start getting my hopes up, but I’m glad that we have Lunsford to keep on this race like a bloodhound.
SSP currently rates this race as Likely Republican.
UPDATE: The crosstabs for this one are now available. As Taegan Goddard might say, here’s your “key finding”:
6 in 10 voters tell SurveyUSA they are focused on the economy, ahead of all other issues. Among voters focused on the economy, McConnell went from a 6-point lead 6 weeks ago, to a 9-point deficit today, a 15-point swing to the Democrat.
And:
To put these numbers into context, it is critical to note that the identical survey that polled Kentucky voters on the US Senate race also asked about the Presidential contest. The same respondents rethinking McConnell are sticking with John McCain. McCain led by 18 points 6 weeks ago, leads by 19 points today.
What I mean is how much of his fortune is he putting up and how energetic is he? Is his heart in it?
So I suppose its possible Lunsford could be getting traction from the Wall Street crisis. If so that could be temporary but hopefully we have a trend developing. It sure would be nice to add a tenth seat to the realistic pick up opportunities – VA, NM, CO, NH, AK, NC, OR, MN, MS.
http://www.mydd.com/story/2008…
Don’t see a link yet, but MyDD is reporting the latest M-D poll has Obama up 47-45 in Florida. Good news if true. Mason Dixon is a great pollster.
greatly oversampled Republicans and undersampled Democrats – Registration hovers around 55% Democrats, but the RK2000 showed 46%. I don’t think it’s quite a 3 point race just yet, i still think that it’s closer to a 6-8 point race (what the RK2000 would have shown with correct sampling), but Lunsford shouldn’t be written off just yet – if he can consolidate Democrats around him, and yes he is a conservative Democrat, he may just be able to knock out McConnell in what would be a surprise on election day.
to take this home. I think it would be funny if the NRSC had to choose between Liddy Dole and Mitch McConnell.
the economic downfall really screws Republicans over this election. It should, this is our strong part. We are the party that solves economic meltdowns and turns them around. This is our second wind after those horrible 2 weeks where the polls were not that great and the Palin effect scared the crap out of everyone. (I was terrified) Cant wait to take my LSAT and it be October where it’s time to kick it into high gear and my life is campaigning. I’m excited.
And woot, the guy I met clipboarding for Obama, seeing him again tomorrow, woot, thanks Obama!
As someone who has lived for over 15 years in a bordering state, whenever I think I have a handle on Kentucky politics I get more confused! For a state its size, it is extremely diverse and complicated.
I think part of the problem Democrats have faced on the statewide level is that to win, a very diverse group of consituencies need to be cobbled together — Louisville (large black population, union voters, some white liberals), Franklin/Fayette Counties (Frankfort and Lexington — basically the Bluegrass area, the wealthiest area of the state), and the mountain east, which is more like West Virginia than anywhere else (and actually Democrats have done better holding that region than WV itself).
Republicans right now have a stronger and seemingly more unified base to draw off of — the northern counties along the Ohio border (espeically the Cincinnati exurbs), along with the Western and Southern parts of the state. A lot of times, it seems like the battleground is often the 2nd District — which has a potentially competitive open House seat.
The last Democrat to really do a good job on the state level of putting the pieces together was former governor Paul Patton. He’s from Pikeville in the far east, but appealed all over the state. His come-from-behind run for governor in 1995 was tremendously important, coming one year after the 1994 Republican landslide. He was all set to take on Jim Bunning in 2004, and would have won if he could have kept his pants on and not had a messy affair with a nursing home owner/manager that got tied up in state business and money.